The conflict in Ukraine and the geopolitics of migration – Model Slux

Within the aftermath of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the EU gave non permanent safety rights to Ukrainians fleeing the battle and suspended a visa facilitation settlement with Russia. Matilde Rosina writes the response to the battle illustrates the significance of migration insurance policies for the EU’s smooth energy.


Greater than six million Ukrainians have fled their nation since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022, with 93% of those that have left now residing in Europe. In response to the battle, the EU granted unprecedented rights to Ukrainian refugees, whereas limiting entry from Russia. However why did the EU undertake such a beneficiant coverage for Ukrainians, contemplating the longstanding considerations of the European public about migration?

I discover this query in a latest research, arguing that the EU used its migration coverage for strategic functions, as a method to extend its smooth energy. On the one hand, by welcoming Ukrainians, the EU despatched a robust message to Ukraine, Russia and the worldwide group that the EU stands in solidarity with Kyiv. Alternatively, by limiting entry for Russians, it underscored Moscow’s condemnation and isolation. All through, the EU offered itself as a number one actor within the worldwide sphere and because the champion of freedom and democracy.

Smooth energy

Smooth energy is energy that goes past safety or financial means, drawing as a substitute from a rustic’s values and tradition to affect others. The UK monarchy, significantly below the reign of Queen Elizabeth II, is commonly cited as a supply of soppy energy for the UK, contributing to the nation’s cultural affect and international picture. Estimates counsel that the monarchy contributes over £1.7 billion per yr to the UK financial system, together with by means of its results on tourism, commerce, media and humanities. Past the case of the UK, the core thought is that smooth energy just isn’t based mostly on coercion or energy, however on persuasion and affect.

Upon the outbreak of the Ukraine conflict, Europeans quickly mobilised in assist of fleeing Ukrainians. For the very first time, the EU adopted the “non permanent safety” mechanism, granting particular rights to Ukrainians by enabling them to work, reside and entry training and medical help whereas within the EU. Contemplating the widespread hostility in direction of immigration, the EU’s response caught many commentators unexpectedly, main them to query why non permanent safety was adopted.

Many researchers have attributed the choice to both pragmatism or selectivity. Regarding pragmatism, authors have argued that the geographic proximity to Ukraine made the EU a “location of first response” for displaced Ukrainians. Certainly, it’s affordable that many Ukrainians would search security within the EU, contemplating Ukraine shares a border with 4 EU member states (Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania) and that, globally, 70% of refugees are hosted in neighbouring international locations. Issues concerning the excessive variety of Ukrainians who had been about to enter the EU had been certainly repeatedly careworn by EU establishments to justify the adoption of non permanent safety.

As for selectivity, some researchers have argued that the beneficiant response to Ukrainian refugees, whereas welcome, is the results of double requirements. Why was non permanent safety not activated for Syrians, Afghans or Iraqis? The argument right here is that the measure was solely activated now as a result of Ukraine is seen as a European nation, and Ukrainians as Europeans with “blue eyes and blond hair”. Analysis certainly means that the extent of public assist for Ukrainian refugees is greater in comparison with that for Afghan or Somali refugees.

Strategic elements

Moreover pragmatism and selectivity, I argue that strategic elements underlie the adoption of non permanent safety. Refugee insurance policies equivalent to non permanent safety carry a excessive diploma of symbolism and relevance for a rustic’s geopolitics. When international locations grant asylum, they achieve this on the idea {that a} refugee is going through persecution and is unable or unwilling to be protected by its nation of origin. By doing so, they suggest a judgement on different international locations’ security, human rights safety and freedom from persecution.

Within the context of the conflict in Ukraine, non permanent safety was employed for strategic functions, recalling america’ open-door coverage in direction of people fleeing the Soviet Union in the course of the Chilly Conflict. This was achieved by means of a number of mechanisms.

First, by welcoming Ukrainians, the EU despatched a transparent message to Moscow, Kyiv and the worldwide group that the EU stands united with Ukraine. Official paperwork embody quite a few references to the EU’s solidarity with Ukraine, characterising the battle not simply as an assault on Kyiv however as an affront to European and international safety too.

In a joint declaration, EU leaders equally praised Ukrainians for shielding “their nation and our shared values”, emphasising their agency dedication. Furthermore, Ukraine was granted the standing of “candidate nation” for EU membership in lower than 4 months since its utility – in stark distinction to the common 3.5 years it took different states to acquire the identical standing.

Second, the EU leveraged non permanent safety to painting itself as a accountable and united actor and, in the end, to reinforce its smooth energy. That is exemplified by Residence Affairs Commissioner Ylva Johansson stating that, because the conflict began, the EU has been “stronger, extra united and certainly extra humane, than perhaps ever earlier than”.

Continuously, the EU’s unity and accountability are offered in opposition to Russia’s isolation and infringements of worldwide regulation. So, if Russia’s conflict is deemed “barbaric”, “unprovoked and unjustified”, the EU’s response is portrayed as “calibrated”, “clever and strategic”, organising a transparent distinction between the EU and Russia. Within the phrases of European Fee President Ursula von der Leyen, “It is a conflict between the rule of regulation and the rule of the gun; between democracies and autocracies; between a rules-based order and a world of bare aggression”.

Lastly, on this “conflict of two worlds”, the EU asserts its main position within the worldwide area, portraying itself because the champion of freedom and democracy. As careworn by European Council President Charles Michel, “Europe can, if we so want, have an actual capability for affect and energy within the service of peace and of our values”.

Visa restrictions and Russia’s condemnation

If the EU adopted non permanent safety to sign assist for Ukraine, it equally relied on one other migration coverage to spotlight condemnation of Russia: visa restriction. The sanctions adopted by the EU towards Russia within the fast aftermath of the invasion included suspension of a visa facilitation settlement. Because of this it’s now tougher and dear for Russian individuals to acquire a visa to journey to the EU. Like refugee insurance policies, visa insurance policies are extremely symbolic, signalling alignment with, or disapproval of, different international locations and their management, as not too long ago exemplified by Israel’s freezing of visas for humanitarian employees working in Palestine.

Within the case of Russia, visa restrictions had been used to specific the nation’s condemnation and its isolation from the worldwide group. This sentiment is captured in a press release by Czech Minister of the Inside Vít Rakušan, stating that: “A visa facilitation settlement permits privileged entry to the EU for residents of trusted companions with whom we share frequent values. With its unprovoked and unjustified conflict… Russia has damaged this belief”. Two distinct realities clearly emerge: the group of “trusted companions”, to whom particular therapy is reserved; and Russia, which, resulting from its unwarranted invasion, is now not a part of such an interior circle.

A quiet superpower

Strategic goals underlie the EU’s response to the conflict in Ukraine within the subject of migration. On one entrance, the EU employed its migration insurance policies to ship a transparent message to Ukraine, Russia and the worldwide group, that the EU stands in solidarity with Kyiv.

Concurrently, it leveraged these measures to erode Russia’s legitimacy and emphasise the nation’s growing isolation. All through, the EU harnessed migration insurance policies as a method to reinforce its smooth energy, by strengthening its international picture as a accountable and influential actor, because the defender of freedom and democracy and, in the end, as a “quiet superpower”.

For extra data, see the creator’s accompanying paper at Coverage Research


Notice: This text provides the views of the creator, not the place of EUROPP – European Politics and Coverage or the London College of Economics. Featured picture credit score: Halfpoint / Shutterstock.com


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